Today was the third day (out of four) that we knocked on the door of the 100 day MA. Again, nobody answered. The market does not like to knock a fourth time. Tomorrow or Thursday, we will most likely retreat and leave the front door, OR, we will blast through it and rally.
This comes at an interesting time....tomorrow the fed will give their interest rate decision after the 2 day FOMC meeting. The market will also be asked to digest today and tomorrows auction AND new home sales. The bigger news will come on Thursday...Jobless claims and Durable goods. So, you must ask yourself what the news will bring and know that the markets will react strongly, as the technicals are poised for such a reaction.
I look for the following:
1) Fed will keep rates unchanged, but may make cautionary comments about the healh of the economy
2) Jobless Claims should rebound from last weeks terrible number
3) New Home Sales should be soft based on the other housing numbers we have seen
4) Durable goods, may show an interesting rebound
If I am right about these forecasts, we should see a trending back to the lows of early January. Having said that, I first see a suckers rally...with Bond prices moving up fast.
Just wanted to give everyone a heads up as my gut is telling me this will not be a "typical" trading week.
Make good decisions and stay conservative. You can't go broke locking and closing loans! :-)
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