Friday, April 16, 2010

Adjustable Rate Mortgages Are An Absolute Steal Right Now. Have You Checked The Rates Lately?


Each week, government-backed Freddie Mac publishes a weekly mortgage rate average compiled from 125 banks across the country. Based on this week's survey results, home buyers in California would be silly to not at least consider the 5-year ARM.

The 5-Year ARM Is A Steal-Of-A-Deal Right Now

As compared to the 30-year fixed, the 5-year ARM is an absolute steal.

Consider this comparison:

•In April 2009, the two products ran neck-and-neck with respect to interest rates
•In April 2010, the two products are split by 0.99 percent chasm

On a $300,000 home loan, that's a difference of $176 per month on a mortgage payment.

Some Folks Are A Perfect Fit For The 5-Year ARM

Now, adjustable-rate mortgages aren't suitable for everyone, but they can be a terrific fit given your individual circumstance. For example, any of the following scenarios might warrant a 5-year ARM instead of a 30-year fixed:

1.You're buying a home and plan to sell it within the next 5 years
2.Your home is currently financed with a 30-year fixed mortgage and you have plans to sell your home within the next 5 years
3.You have an ARM now and want to get a "restart" on your starter rate

Before opting an ARM, speak with your loan officer about how adjustable-rate mortgages work, and what longer-term risks may exist. The savings may be tempting, but there's more to consider than just the payment.

How To Apply For A 5-Year ARM At 3.875 Percent

To inquire about a 5-year ARM, call my office at 510-799-1400 or 800-259-3424 or send me an email. We can review your situation and if the ARM isn't too risky for your goals, we'll move on to an official application and start working toward closing.

Most new mortgages are closing in 3 weeks.

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John Payne is an active loan officer. Email John@JohnPayneLending.com or call 510-799-1400 or 800-259-3424.

Defending Your Home From Mortgage Rate Velocity


Life is getting difficult for home buyers and rate shoppers. Since the start of April, mortgage lenders are averaging 2.25 rate sheets per day.

Mortgage Rate Velocity -- the pace of rate sheet change -- is as high as it's been in a year.

What Is A Mortgage Rate Sheet?

A rate sheet is a mortgage bank's "menu". It lists rate-and-points combinations for every loan product available. Some rate sheets are just a page; others go 10 pages or more. Most are now electronic.

Rate sheets show the "right now" pricing on products including:

•30-year, 20-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages
•Short-term ARMs like 1-year and 3-year products
•Long-term ARMs like 5-year, 7-year and 10-year products
•Jumbo and super jumbo mortgages
•The complete line of FHA and VA mortgages
•Loans for condotels and non-warrantable condos

Rate sheets change with the market and, lately, markets have been wild.

Mortgage Rates Are Changing Every 3 Hours, On Average

In January, mortgage rates changed every 6 hours. Since late-March, however, they've changed every 3 hours.

That's two times as fast. There's no "calling you back in the afternoon" or "thinking about it overnight" in a market like this. Unless you're watching real-time market updates, it's pretty much a guarantee you'll get burned.

Want that rate you were just quoted? You better lock it right this second.

It's Going To Get Even Worse For Rate Shoppers

The pace of change in April is just the beginning. By June, today's Mortgage Rate Velocity will look tame; as a turtle to a hare.

The Fed is officially gone from the mortgage market and its absence has left markets in doubt. The Fed was a stabilizer, if nothing else, and with it gone, there's questions about whether investors will step up to fill the demand void. Especially because stock markets are throwing better returns and debt concerns are easing around the world.

Mortgage bonds fared well in 2009 because the world was on fire. This summer, that won't be the case. Mortgage Rate Velocity will eclipse its all-time highs.

Shield Yourself From Mortgage Rate Velocity

As a loan officer, I track mortgage data in real-time, and summarize it online to to Facebook. I send alerts to my audience before new rate sheets come out so everyone can stay ahead of the market.

You need to be plugged in. If you manage them right, my alerts should save you tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage. It'd be silly not to pay attention, really.

However, being "alert" is only one part of being ready. You must also have a loan application on file with your lender.

Banks can't give rate locks without full applications.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 510-799-1400 or send me an email. Then, when it's time for you to lock, you'll be glad you were ready. Markets move quickly and your mortgage is a huge financial instrument. It's not something to gamble with.


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John Payne is an active loan officer. Email John@JohnPayneLending.com or call 510-799-1400 or 800.259.3424.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Breaking Open The Fed Minutes For Clues On April's Mortgage Rates


Mortgage markets improved yesterday after the Federal Reserve released its March 16, 2010 meeting minutes. It's good news for California home buyers and rate shoppers -- rates could have just as easily gone the other way.

The Meaning Of The Fed Minutes

The Fed Minutes is a detailed recap of the debate and discussion that shapes the nation's monetary policy. The notes are dense; it takes 3 weeks to compile them for publication.

As compared to its more well-known, post-meeting press release cousin, the Fed Minutes are extremely lengthy. In word counts:

•March 16 press release : 451 words
•March 16 meeting minutes : 6,152 words
If the press release is the executive summary, in other words, the Fed Minutes are the novel.

A Not-So-Hidden Message On Inflation

The extra words matter.The minutes recount what the Fed did, how the Fed did it, and what the Fed plans to do next. And, in the minutes, Wall Street looks for clues.

This is why the report is important to every rate shopper in the country.

When the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its meetings, it leave clues about the groups next policy-making steps. For example, in March's Fed Minutes, it's clear that the Fed's concern about inflation is hugely diminished and that's a major plus for the mortgage bond market.

Inflation causes mortgage rates to rise. The absence of inflation, therefore, helps them to fall. This improves home affordability, among other things.

The Fed Explains Why Home Sales Are Strong

Similarly, the Fed Minutes note that real estate sales may have been worse throughout the winter months if not for low mortgage rates and the sense among Americans that home prices were troughing. We may infer, therefore, that rising rates may suppress home sales later this year.

Markets are always looking for clues from inside the Fed and the last meeting's minute signal that the economy is on its way up. If you're looking for a bargain in the housing market, your window to act may be closing.

Going under contract for home this week or this month? Click here to send me an email and get a competitive rate quote.

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John Payne is an active loan officer. Email John@JohnPayneLending.com or call 800.259.3424

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

With More Homes Going Under Contract, Home Prices Certain To Rise This Spring


As expected, the Pending Home Sales shot higher in February, boosted by the federal home buyer tax credit's April 30 deadline.

Pending Home Sales Spike

Versus the month prior, February's index rose 8 percent but remains well off the highs set last October.

For today's home buyers and seller, the Pending Home Sales Index is an important measurement. This is because a "pending home" is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days, historically. Therefore, a higher Pending Sales figure in February projects that April's Existing Home Sales will be higher, too.

More Pending Home Sales Means Higher Home Prices

If you're a California home buyer today, no doubt you've noticed the extra market activity.

On right-priced homes, multiple offer situations are more common; sales prices are settling closer to listing price; Days on market is falling. These are the signs of a buyer-heavy market. It drives home supplies down and home prices up.

It's a good time to be a seller, in other words. Especially as buyer activity looks poised to peak.

Get Ahead Of The Surge To Get The Best "Deals"

When the home buyer credit faced its last expiration in November 2009, we saw a pattern of buyers rushing to beat the deadline. There's no reason to expect that won't happen again. And as it does, Pending Home Sales should continue to climb. Average home sale prices should rise.

Home buyers may find it smart to go under contract sooner rather than later. Pending Home Sales is a warning shot. Higher home sales figures are ahead.




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John Payne is an active loan officer. Email John@JohnPayneLending.com or call 510-799-1400 or 800-259-3424.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Spring 2010 FHA Changes : Higher Fees, Bigger Downpayments, And More Mortgage Insurance

Looking to FHA for your next mortgage? Get a move on! Although you have until Friday, April 2, 2010 to get your application in, Friday is Good Friday and most banks will be closed.

Your true FHA deadline is Thursday, April 1.

Guidelines Change In 3 Days

To shore up its balance sheet and dwindling capital reserves, the Federal Housing Authority is rolling out sweeping financial changes. Starting next week, FHA borrowers must look better on paper and to be better credit risks.

Mortgage insurance premiums are rising, too.

In its official announcement, the FHA said its trying to better position itself to "manage its risk while continuing to support the nation’s housing market".

The changes start with case numbers assigned on or after Monday, April 5, 2010.

Reviewing The FHA Mortgage Changes

One widely speculated change wasn't made -- the increase of the FHA minimum downpayment. Homebuyers in California and elsewhere can still buy with just 3.5 percent down. However, the group did roll out a number of other changes, including:

•An increase in Upfront MIP from 1.75 percent to 2.25 percent
•A plan to reduce maximum seller contributions from 6 to 3 percent by summer
•A Congressional request to increase monthly mortgage insurance premiums

Furthermore, the FHA's new guidelines institute a minimum FICO requirement of 580 to make the minimum 3.5% downpayment, requiring 10 percent for any applicant whose credit score falls below that level.

2010: The Year Of Investor Overlays

But, just because the FHA allows 580 FICOs, banks don't have to allow it.

The official term here is "investor overlay". It's when banks use Federal Housing Authority guidelines as a starting point for their own set of underwriting rules which are often more strict.

And banks have a good reason for making investor overlays.

In January, the FHA subpoenaed 15 lenders -- none where from Calfornia-- because of abnormally-high FHA default rates. The act was a shot across the bow, it appears, because more lenders have been shut down since.

The FHA made a loan performance benchmark and if a bank's defaults exceed the mean by x number of sigmas, said bank loses its FHA license. Period.

Expect FHA investor overlays to be a running theme of 2010.

Your FHA Mortgage Denial May Be Reversible

Starting immediately, FHA mortgage guidelines will vary from bank-to-bank as lenders get more active about their originated mortgages. Going forward, what gets FHA-approved at Bank of America, for example, may not be FHA-approved at Wells Fargo.

FHA loans will now be denied simply because the applicant applied at the "wrong bank".

If your mortgage has been denied or you just want to have the best chance of being approved possible, call or send me an email with some notes on your situation. I am a FHA approved Mortgage Broker and work with several HUD-approved lenders.

In other words, apply once and I'll automatically align with the best pricing and fewest overlays. Click here to email me about getting started.


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John Payne is an active loan officer. Email John@JohnPayneLending.com or call 510-799-1400 or 800.259.3424.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Say Good-Bye To Histroical Low Mortgage Rates


Mortgage rates tend to climb with the mercury. It's been the case in each of the last 4 years. As spring months turn into summer, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rises.

This year should be no different.

The Environment Is Ripe For Rates To Rise

With mortgage rates artificially suppressed and U.S. inflation expectations at a minimum, the current mortgage rate environment is extremely consumer-friendly. Few people expected 5.000 percent rates to be available this late into a recovery.

But with the economy showing signs that recovery is sustainable, pressure is on for rates to rise.

•Retail Sales data shows consumers are out spending again
•Job growth gets closer to net positive, month-by-month
•Home values have stopped falling, and, in some markets, are rebounding

Each of these factors draws money out of the relative safety of the bond market and into the riskier world of stocks.

Furthermore, the price of gas is rising. It's up 20 cents per gallon in the last 30 days. No doubt you've noticed. Rising gas prices are inflationary and when gas prices rise, we find that mortgage rates are usually right behind.

The Fed's Buyback Program Ends 7 Days From Now

There's another reason for rates to rise this season, too. It's the Federal Reserve's mortgage buyback program.

More specifically, its pending ending.

The Fed's buyback program was, by most accounts, a success. Rates are an estimated one percent lower than they would have been without the Fed's intervention, and the rate drop happened without much disruption in day-to-day mortgage market trading.

However, the Fed's program ends next week. March 31, to be exact. And when the Fed leaves the market, there's going to have to be someone to pick up the slack demand or else mortgage rates will have nowhere to go but up. This is because mortgage rates move opposite of mortgage bond prices.

Yields rise as a result.

Beware Of Inflation

Inflation expectations are low for now, but that can change quickly. It only takes a series of strong economic data to make Wall Street question what's really ahead for the U.S. consumer. Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates and its presence makes rates rise.

Therefore, use the mortgage rate chart to your advantage. You can see what's happened to mortgage rates in each of the last 4 summers -- 2010 should follow suit. And when the mortgage market turns for the worse, it's going to turn quick. Be ready for it.

Get Locked In March Or April

Email me anytime and we can talk about your mortgage situation -- purchase or refinance. You don't need to lock a rate today -- you just need to be ready to get it done because when it's time, it's time. As soon as you notice rates are higher, it'll probably be too late to do anything about it.


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John Payne is an active Mortgage Planner. Email John@JohnPayneLending.com or call 510-799-1400 or 800-259-3424.

Monday, March 15, 2010

February 2010: California Leads the Nation in Foreclosure Activity


Foreclosure-related filings topped 300,000 last month, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.

Nationwide, 1 in every 418 households was served some form of foreclosure notice but -- as always -- foreclosures are more common in some areas than others.

In February 2010, 4 states accounted for more than half of the country's foreclosure-related activity:

•California : 22.2 percent
•Florida : 17.5 percent
•Michigan : 6.5 percent
•Illinois : 5.6 percent

Combined, these four states represent 56% of foreclosures but just 25% of the population. Clearly, foreclosures are a local phenomenon.

They're also the spring season's biggest story.

Because foreclosures and other "distressed" homes tend to sell at a discount, they now account for 38 of all home resales. This is up from 33 percent in the month prior.

For first-time homebuyers, move-up homebuyers, and even for investors with more than 4 properties, buying foreclosures in California has never been easier.

Foreclosures are big business and new listings are available 24/7.

My clients have told me these 3 websites, in particular, are a good place to start for foreclosures, if that's what interests you. Each site offers a free, 7-day pass and that's usually enough to help you scout the market for something worth buying.

1.RealtyTrac offers free access to foreclosure listings
2.Foreclosure.com offers free access to foreclosure listings
3.HUDForeclosed.com offers free access to foreclosure listings

Then, when you see something you like, talk to your real estate agent about it, or ask me for a referral by email to a skilled foreclosure-specializing agent. Negotiating for a bank-owned home is different from negotiating for a "regular" home.

You're going to want somebody experienced on your side.

High foreclosure levels have led to interesting buying opportunities. Do your search and see what comes up for you locally. Then, when you're ready for your pre-approval letter, call me and I'll take care of you. I'm experienced with short sales and REOs and would be happy arrange for your mortgage.

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John Payne is an active loan officer. Email John@JPMortgageLoans.com or call 510.799.1400 or 800.259.3424.

Friday, March 12, 2010

How to Shop For Mortgages and Keep Your Credit Scores High


Credit scoring is a huge part of the mortgage world.

A given credit score can mean the difference between a 5 percent rate and a 6 percent rate; a conventional mortgage and an FHA mortgage; an underwriting approval and an underwriting denial.

And yet, there's a persistent belief among Americans that "having your credit checked" is a bad thing.

In some instances, yes. In most instances, though, no.

See, not all credit applications are created equal. At least, not in the eyes of the bureaus.

A formal credit pull by a mortgage company is treated differently from applying to get 10% off at Target. To understand why, let's start with some credit scoring basics.

Credit Inquiries Are A Formal Process

A "credit inquiry" is a formal request to review a person's credit report.

Credit inquires are grouped with other traits into a credit-scoring category called "New Credit". New Credit represents 10 percent of a person's complete credit score. On the scale of 300-850, therefore, credit inquiries represent a tiny portion of a maximum of 85 points to a FICO.

There are many times of credit inquiries, but really only 4 of the set can impact a person's credit score:

1. A credit check for a mortgage loan
2. A credit check for an auto loan
3. A credit check for a credit card application
4. A credit check for a store credit card, or consumer loan

These 4 types are singled out because, in each case, the inquiry is made by the applicant in order to get access to more debt. Because extra debt increases the probability of default, credit inquiries can sometimes foreshadow trouble.

Even then, however, the risk of default varies by application type.

For example, credit card applications can be more damaging to a credit score than a mortgage application. This is because credit card debts tend to revolve higher over time versus a mortgage which eventually pays down to $0.

So, all things equal, a credit card application will harm your credit score more than an application for a home loan.

A Credit Inquiry Lowers Your FICO By 5 Points

When compared to the other credit scoring elements, Credit Inquiries is a relative nothing.

In the official FICO scoring model, Payment History and Credit Utilization account for 65% of a score, combined, and the amount of time during which you've had credit to your name accounts for 15%. These three areas are over-weighted because the bureaus are more concerned with what you've already done with your credit versus what you might do with more of it.

Your credit past is the best clue to your credit future and it's one of two reasons why it's okay to give your social security number to as many lenders as you want. The impact of a credit inquiry is tiny next to the value of being a Model Credit Citizen.

A mortgage credit inquiry is estimated to lower a credit score by just 5 points.

Unfortunately, we'll never know for sure because the very act of examining the credit score causes it to move. In Physics, this is called the Heisenberg Principle. On MTV, it's called The Jersey Shore Syndrome. Put a camera on something, and it changes.

The Credit Bureaus Don't Hit Your FICO Twice

The second reason you should shop around with lenders is that -- unlike applying for multiple credit cards -- applying for multiple mortgages won't count as multiple, consumer-initiated inquiries. This is a common thing.

You might apply for 5 credit cards and use them all. You're not going to be approved for 5 mortgages.

As such, the credit bureaus have made it a formal policy to permit "rate shopping". Talk to as many lenders as you want in a 14-day time frame; have your credit checked as often as you'd like; compare rates and fees. All of the inquiries will be lumped into a single application.

It's good for you and it's good for the bureaus. Your credit scores stay high and TransUnion, Equifax and Experian collect more fees from the banks.

Advice From The Credit Bureaus On Getting Low Rates

To promote rate shopping and to lessen The Fear of Credit Inquiry, the people behind the FICO brand spell out for you the best way to get the best mortgage rates possible:

1. If you want the best rate, you should "shop around"
2. Limit rate shopping to 14-day timespan to keep your credit scores high
3. Mortgage lenders can't give accurate rate quotes without a credit score so give up your social security number

Metaphorically, not letting your lender see your FICO is like not letting your doctor check your blood pressure. You'll get a diagnosis when the appointment is over -- it just might not be the right one.


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John Payne is an active Mortgage Planner. Email John@JPMortgageLoans.com or call 510-799-1400 or 800-259-3424.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

2010 Conforming Loan Limits: Same As 2009, 2008, 2007 and 2006


Conforming mortgages are appropriately named; they "conform" to the mortgage underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Mortgages meeting these criteria are securitized on Wall Street as mortgage-backed bonds.

Since 2007, though, as mortgage performance has weakened, Fannie and Freddie's lending standards have tightened. Today's would-be borrowers are asked to document more income, deeper reserves, and higher credit scores. One underwriting area that hasn't tightened, however, is the maximum allowable loan size.

Conforming Loan Limits Vary By Property Type

For the 5th consecutive year, the 1-unit conforming mortgage loan limit is $417,000.

As released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the official 2010 conforming mortgage loan size limits are, by property type:

•1-unit properties : $417,000
•2-unit properties : $533,850
•3-unit properties : $645,300
•4-unit properties : $801,950

Note, however, that maximum conforming loan limits vary by market.

Conforming Loan Limits Vary By ZIP Code

Counties in which "typical" home prices dwarf the conforming loan limits are declared "high-cost" areas. Each gets its own, individual conforming loan limit that ranges up to $729,750.

For example, a home in Denver, Colorado is capped conforming at $417,000 but a home in Snowmass, Colorado gets clearance up to $729,750. Same for Tulare, CA as compared to San Francisco, CA.

Tulare's maximum loan size is $417,000; San Francisco's is $625,500.

What To Do If Your Mortgage Is "Jumbo"

Mortgages that exceed conforming loan limits are considered "jumbo" or "super jumbo". Excellent pricing is still available, you just have to know where to look. And it's not at Fannie Mae.

There are just 197 designated high-cost areas in the U.S. -- 6% of the country. For the majority of homeowners, therefore, the 2010 conforming loan limit is $417,000.

To find your local market's loan limit and confirm it, check the Fannie Mae website.


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John Payne is an active loan officer. Reach John via email at John@JPMortgageLoans.com or call 800.259.3424 or 510.799.1400.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Mortgage Pricing Gets Unpredictable. It's Time To Lock Your Mortgage Rate.


Mortgage rates were more volatile in February than in January, making mortgage rate shopping a little bit more difficult. Lenders averaged 1.55 rate sheets per day.

What Is A Mortgage Rate Sheet?

A rate sheet is a mortgage bank's "menu". It lists the rate-and-points combination for every product available. Some lender rate sheets are 1 page long; some are 10 pages or more. They include prices for products including:

•30-year, 20-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages
•Short-term ARMs like 1-year and 3-year products
•Long-term ARMs like 5-year, 7-year and 10-year products
•All variations of jumbo and super jumbo mortgages
•The complete line of FHA and VA mortgages
•Loans for condotels and non-warrantable condos

Rate sheets change with the market and although last month's rate sheets were relatively change-free as compared to last summer, there were some interesting footnotes.

Under The Surface, Not So Tame

February's mortgage market could be categorized as "on edge". For the most part, rates didn't change intra-day. It was common for lenders to issue rate sheets in the morning and stick to their pricing through market close.

In February, rates held firm 13 out of 20 days -- 65% of the time. That's more than double December 2009's frequency and the highest of the last 2 years.

On days in which rates did change, though, they changed a lot. There were two days on which rates changed 3 times and one day on which rates changed 4 times.

Prior to last month, we hadn't seen a 4-sheet day since October 2009.

Mortgage Rates Will Change Rapidly In March

As the United States fortifies its economy with slow, steady growth, and as the Federal Reserve withdraws its support for mortgage markets, mortgage rates are poised
to spike. However, sporadic reports of economic weakness have undermined that eventuality.

If you've been floating a mortgage rate in 2010, you've played with fire and not been burned. Going forward, get out the turnout gear. Rates are going to rise -- and they're going to rise quickly.

Be ready for it because you won't see the rate hike in the news until it's too late. You won't see it in real-time.

But I will.

Get Rate Sheet Updates As They're Happening

As a Mortgage Planner, I track mortgage data that's unavailable to the public, and I
summarize it online via my Facebook page. I send alerts before new rate sheets come out.

Furthermore, if you're actively rate shopping in California, make sure to ask me for a real-time rate quote by email. I work for a self-funded bank and my bank's rate sheets are often cheaper as compared to my peers.


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John Payne is an active Mortgage Planner. Reach John via email at John@JPMortgageLoans.com or call 510-799-1400 or 800-259-3424.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Spring 2010 FHA Changes : Higher Fees, Bigger Downpayments, And More Mortgage Insurance


Life as an FHA borrower is getting tougher.

In an effort to shore up its flailing balance sheet and dwindling capital reserves, the Federal Housing Authority is rolling out sweeping financial changes. FHA borrowers have to look better on paper and be better credit risks.

Mortgage insurance premiums are rising, too.

Changes Effective April 5, 2010
In its official announcement, the FHA said its trying to better position itself to "manage its risk while continuing to support the nation’s housing market".

The changes are effective with case numbers assigned starting April 5, 2010.

One widely speculated change wasn't made -- the increase of the FHA minimum downpayment. Homebuyers in California and elsewhere can still buy with just 3.5 percent down. However, the group did roll out a number of other changes, including:

•An increase in Upfront MIP from 1.75 percent to 2.25 percent
•A reduction in maximum seller contributions from 6 percent to 3 percent
•A Congressional request to increase monthly mortgage insurance premiums
Furthermore, the FHA's new guidelines institute a minimum FICO requirement of 580 to make the minimum 3.5% downpayment, requiring 10 percent for any applicant whose credit score falls below that level.

2010: The Year Of Investor Overlays

But, just because the FHA allows 580 FICOs, banks don't have to allow it.

The official term here is "investor overlay". It's when that banks use Federal Housing Authority guidelines as a starting point for their own set of underwriting rules which are often more strict.

And banks have a good reason for making investor overlays.

In January, the FHA subpoenaed 15 lenders -- including the well-respected 1st Advantage Mortgage in Lombard, Illinois -- because of abnormally-high FHA default rates. The act was a shot across the bow, it appears, because more lenders have been shut down since.

The FHA made a loan performance benchmark and if a bank's defaults exceed the mean by x number of sigmas, said bank loses its FHA license. Period.

Expect FHA investor overlays to be a running theme of 2010.

A Mortgage Denial May Not Be Permanent

Guidelines will vary from bank-to-bank as lenders take a more active role in managing their originated mortgages. What gets FHA-approved Bank of America, for example, may not be FHA-approved at Wells Fargo.

Many FHA loans will be denied in 2010 simply because the applicant applied at the wrong bank.

If your mortgage has been denied or you just want to have the best chance of being approved possible, call or send me an email with some notes on your situation. I'm a HUD-approved lender and work with the nation's largest investors as an approved conduit.

In other words, apply once and you'll be automatically aligned with the bank with the best pricing plus least amount of overlays. That's what I do for you as your Mortgage Planner.


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John Payne is an active loan officer. Reach John via email at John@JPMortgageLoans.com or call 800.259.3424 or 510.799.1400.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Mortgage Rate Change Faster Than Freddie Mac Can Report It!


People search for mortgage rates on Google. That's not news. They type in something like "California mortgage rates" and then comb through the results in search of "today's rate".

Except Google doesn't give rates. Google gives links.

Links to random websites or elaborate sieves meant to capture eyeballs and generate applications. The problem is, most people shopping for rates just want information -- they don't want to be sold something. Not yet, at least.

You can't window shop for mortgages on Google

You can't window shop Google for mortgage rates and it's frustrating. This is because searching for a mortgage isn't like searching for a book. You can't eliminate the information asymmetry inherent in mortgages; know the price before you step in the store, so to speak. You really can't know if you're getting the "guaranteed lowest rate".

In the mortgage markets, prices are elusive.

However, in doing the research, people learn a lot about mortgages.

•They learn that mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed bonds and not the 10-year Treasury Note
•They learn how changes in the Fed Funds Rate change mortgage rates
•They learn that mortgage rates are as ever-changing as stock prices
Beyond that, though, it's an information abyss.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey is instantly out-of-date

When you're looking for mortgage rates, there's no crawler on Bloomberg; no ticker on Google Finance; no section in the newspaper. Sooner or later, therefore, everyone trips into the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. It's one of the most widely-circulated mortgage rate surveys in the country.

Published since 1971, the Freddie Mac survey is the basis for national mortgage rate news, and for Home Affordability studies, and for congressional research, and about anything else mortgage-rate related. The study is flawed in a big way, however. Huge.

The problem is in the survey's methodology.

According to Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey results are collected Monday through Wednesday, then published to the public Thursday. By design, therefore, the survey lumps mortgage market activity spread across 3 days into 1 single point of data.

Survey results are skewed, therefore, based on the when survey responders get back to Freddie Mac.

Last week, this point was painfully clear. Mortgage rates were down Tuesday morning, but rode the rocket higher Wednesday and Thursday. It was the worst week for mortgage rates since late-December, actually. And Freddie Mac missed it -- its survey was compiled before rates went bad.

So, Freddie Mac reported 30-year fixed mortgage rates down by 0.04% from the week prior. Real mortgage pricing, however, showed rates up three-eighths.

A workaround : How to find actual mortgage rates online

What's a rate shopper to do? Well, for one, stop looking for rates on Google. Consider giving applications to a handful of Certified Mortgage Cocahes (CMC) and let them track your rates for you. A CMC can (and will) tell you about your real-time pricing if you ask.

Remember that mortgage rates change all day long. A quote issued in the morning won't be valid in the afternoon. You have to stay on your toes if you want be ahead of market changes and lock the best possible rate.

In California or anywhere else.

(Image adapted from Freddie Mac)


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John Payne is an active Certified Mortgage Coach. Reach John via email at John@JPMortgageLoans.com or call 510-799-1400 or toll free 800-259-3424.

Monday, February 15, 2010

Buying REO? Keep An Eye On Foreclosures Per Capita.

Foreclosure-related filings topped 300,000 last month, bringing the 12-month total to somewhere near 1.4 million nationwide. Some states, of course, are more foreclosure-heavy than others.

According to RealtyTrac, the state of Nevada keeps its title as Foreclosure Central with a foreclosure rate 4 times the national average. Arizona, California and Florida aren't far behind.



In fact, the country's foreclosure activity is so heavily concentrated that a full 40 states fall below the national foreclosure average. That's a fascinating statistic and puts some perspective on the "foreclosure crisis" we keep hearing about. Clearly, foreclosures are a local phenomenon.

Oh, and they're selling like hotcakes, too. Distressed homes now account for 1/3 of all home resales. The good news is that buying a foreclosure in California or anywhere else has never been simpler. Because foreclosures are big business now, a cottage industry has spawned and reliable foreclosure data is available 24/7.

These 3 websites are a good place to start. Each offers a free, 7-day pass and that's usually enough to help you scout the market.

1.RealtyTrac.com offers free access to foreclosure listings
2.Foreclosure.com offers free access to foreclosure listings
3.HUDForeclosed.com offers free access to foreclosure listings

Then, when you see something you like, talk to your real estate agent about it. Negotiating for a bank-owned home is different from negotiating for a "regular" home. You're going to want somebody experienced on your side.

High foreclosure levels have led to interesting buying opportunities. Do your search and see what comes up for you locally. Then, when you're ready for your pre-approval letter, call or send me an email.

I'm experienced with short sales and REOs and will arrange for your mortgage.

My rates are very good and I close loans quickly.


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John Payne is an active Certified Mortgage Planner. Reach John via email at John@JPMortgageLoans.com or call toll-free to 800-259-3424.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

What is the difference between getting a mortgage on-line vs. a comprehensive, long term mortgage plan?

We all purchase things online. Books, clothing, music, movies, appliances and even new cars are purchased online by consumers today. People have become comfortable with the internet and its ability to provide solid information. The success of internet purchasing has made many people, probably including yourself, comfortable with purchasing over the web.

However, think about the concept of buying a used car, sight unseen, online.
Think about the idea of buying a house for your family to live in, exclusively online.
Now think about the idea of getting your mortgage online and you have an idea of the pitfalls you face.

There are many challenges associated with securing your mortgage online.
Products that allow for successful online shopping share some common characteristics:
• They are commodities, every seller has the same price!
• There is one price. Meaning there are few options or upgrades to impact pricing.

Products that are inherently disadvantaged to being purchased online also have common threads…
• Each one is individual. Cars are a great example of this.
• Nobody wants to buy without the right feel. Houses and cars are both signs of this.
• Everything seems negotiable.
• Many moving pieces make it impossible to compare apples to apples.

The stakes are higher when the consumer tries to purchase online…
• Buying the wrong used car can have you paying endlessly for repairs instead of driving.
• Buying the wrong home online is not likely to happen for most.
• But, what if you get the wrong loan online?

1. You could pay thousands more in “hidden costs at the closing table.
2. You may not get the right loan for your situation and get stuck paying tens of thousands more over the time you live in the home.
3. In a worst case scenario, you may not get an explanation of the terms of your loan and could potentially have terms in it that could lead to foreclosure down the road.

Using a professional mortgage consultant, like a Certified Mortgage Coach or Mortgage Planner can help you make the best decision about your mortgage and the future of your family’s finances.

One of the processes I provide for my client is called the Total Cost Analysis. This analysis requires a few pieces of information from you and the process takes less than 10 minutes. Once complete you will have the numbers for three or four options for mortgages in this market. These numbers allow you to make the mortgage decision thoroughly informed and allow you to be objective with the results.

John is an active Certified Mortgage Coach and Mortgage Planner. You may contact John at (510) 799-1400 or toll free (800) 259-3424 or email John@JPMortgageLoans.com

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

SPECIAL POST!!!!!!!!!! 01/ 26/10 6:30 PM PST

Today was the third day (out of four) that we knocked on the door of the 100 day MA. Again, nobody answered. The market does not like to knock a fourth time. Tomorrow or Thursday, we will most likely retreat and leave the front door, OR, we will blast through it and rally.

This comes at an interesting time....tomorrow the fed will give their interest rate decision after the 2 day FOMC meeting. The market will also be asked to digest today and tomorrows auction AND new home sales. The bigger news will come on Thursday...Jobless claims and Durable goods. So, you must ask yourself what the news will bring and know that the markets will react strongly, as the technicals are poised for such a reaction.

I look for the following:

1) Fed will keep rates unchanged, but may make cautionary comments about the healh of the economy

2) Jobless Claims should rebound from last weeks terrible number

3) New Home Sales should be soft based on the other housing numbers we have seen

4) Durable goods, may show an interesting rebound

If I am right about these forecasts, we should see a trending back to the lows of early January. Having said that, I first see a suckers rally...with Bond prices moving up fast.
Just wanted to give everyone a heads up as my gut is telling me this will not be a "typical" trading week.

Make good decisions and stay conservative. You can't go broke locking and closing loans! :-)

Monday, January 25, 2010

I am waiting for either rates or prices to come down, how can I lose money in the process?

The biggest challenge for the consumer in today’s real estate market is getting the right timing on all the moving pieces. The internet is crawling with misinformation about the housing market, the mortgage market and everything else related to real estate. The other big challenge, the rest of the world keeps moving and it is next to impossible to control all of the variables that can impact getting your best deal.

In fact, if you are trying to take advantage of the current reduction in purchase prices in the Real Estate market generated by the foreclosure crisis, you are not alone. However, trying to guess the bottom of the market in both interest rates or housing prices should be a fool’s errand; because if this crisis passes before you have made your purchase, you will pay much more later for homes that are “on sale” today through higher interest rates, higher prices for the homes or both.

When considering the options presented in this market many people expect that somewhere, someone will wave a big flag that says “Do It Now!!” The best time will not be announced to you by some outside force. Markets will keep moving and you need to educate yourself so that you can see the signs when they appear.

Here are several things that most people are not aware of or don’t completely understand when it comes to today’s Real Estate market.
Here are some facts:

• Prices are down. In some markets as much as 50% over where they were just a few years ago. How much lower do you think they will go?
• Interest rates are down. From the high sixes a couple of years ago to the high four percents today. How much lower do you think they will go?
• There is a cost associated with continuing your current path. If you rent this payment does not go away. Have you quantified this cost?

Some general rules of thumb when looking at this market.

• Don’t expect another 50% drop in prices from here. The big drops are already in.
• It will likely become more difficult, not less, to secure financing over the next twelve months than it is today.
• The most attractive properties will move first. Waiting will not give you access to the great properties..

One of the strategies that I provide for my clients and professional partners is called a Cost of Waiting Analysis. I can provide a complimentary consultation to learn about your objectives and see how we can develop a strategy to get you off the fence and into the market to win the best deal possible for your specific situation. The discussion requires I obtain a few pieces of information from you, gathering that data takes less than 10 minutes. Leave no stone unturned in your efforts to get financing.


To be able to schedule a no obligation, exploratory conversation to determine the right strategy, contact me at 510.799.1400 or toll free at 800.259.3524 or email John@JPMortgageLoans.com.


Be sure to ask about the complimentary Total Cost Analysis report. If you decide to take action and secure a mortgage the Total Cost Analysis helps you choose the right mortgage, based on the numbers.


What do you have to lose? More importantly, what do you have to gain?

I have the key to securing a great deal for you to capitalize on this opportunity.
Connect me today to start the process of exploring the numbers and becoming a buyer with a competitive edge. Again no cost or obligation to you, this is a community service I provide.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Is Your California House Worth Less Than What You Owe? A Refinancing Guide For Homeowners With Negative Equity

If you're like 8 out of 10 homeowners in California that owe more than their house is worth, but could benefit from refinancing your home mortgage to a lower rate, then continue reading. The first step would be to determine who actually owns your home loan. Chances are pretty good the mortgage servicer, the bank that sends you the payment statement, and the "actual owner" of the mortgage are two different parties.

Is your home loan owned by Fannie Mae?
If so, Fannie Mae now offers the Desktop Underwriter (DU) Refi Plus Program. This home mortgage refinancing program will prevent unnecessary foreclosures by lowering monthly mortgage payments for millions of eligible homeowners.

What This Means For You...
Through refinancing, borrowers like you can take advantage of today's low rates and reduce their monthly payment. This will help monthly cash flow for millions of families across the nation. Another goal of the DU Refi Plus Program is to help homeowners who live paycheck-to-paycheck, stabilize their finances. This means Fannie Mae and other lenders will now turn riskier loans, such as Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM), into more stable loans, such as Fixed Rate Mortgages (FRM).

Easier to Qualify Than Before...
The purpose of the DU Refi Plus Program is to help the economic burden that many of us face today. One way to help with this is to offer assistance to homeowners who were previously ineligible. Under the new DU Refi Plus Program, Fannie Mae reduces eligibility restrictions and requires less documentation.
  • Previously, Fannie Mae required applicants to show two current pay stubs as income verification. Under the DU Refi Plus Program, applicants can show only one current pay stub.
  • On certain loans, Fannie Mae will now waive appraisals.
  • Previously, Fannie Mae would not handle loans over 80% of your home's market value. Now, applicants may have a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio between 80-105% and NO MORTGAGE INSURANCE is required on the new loan.
  • Fannie Mae will now accept applicants with a credit score less than 580, if their LTV is 80% or less.

DU Refi Plus Terms and Conditions

Though Fannie Mae will now help more homeowners than ever before with DU Refi Plus, there are still certain restrictions that will apply:

  • Loans must be owned by Fannie Mae.
  • Any existing subordinations have to be re-subordinated.
  • Limited cash-out refinancing (less than 2% of loan, or $2,000).

Ineligible new loan products for the DU Refi Plus program are:

  • An ARM with fixed terms less than 5 years.
  • An interest only mortgage.
  • A balloon mortgage.

You may also be ineligible to participate in the DU Refi Plus program if you made a payment more than 30-days late within the past year.

If you have any questions about how to reduce your monthly mortgage payment, contact John Payne today at 510-799-1400 or 800-259-3424 or John@JPMortgageLoans.com.


The FHA 203(k) Loan - The PERFECT Solution To Repair Your New California Home

The FHA 203(k) Rehabilitation Loan was started as a tool to help the revitalization of neighborhoods and communities in California and throughout the United States. The 203(k) loan program offers borrowers the resources to rehabilitate or repair their new home that may be in need of limited repairs and/or upgrades without exhausting their savings. This can be used for either the purchase of a fixer-upper or the refinance of a home you currently occupy. One single loan is used to pay for the purchase (or refinance) and the cost of renovating the home.

The FHA 203(k) loan is available to borrowers of all income levels who plan to occupy their house in California. This loan also opens the door for many California first-time homebuyers and applicants with less than perfect credit, while still allowing for low down payments. Properties eligible for this product include any single family residences, condominiums, manufactured homes, townhouses and properties with one to four units located in California.

The Streamlined 203(k) program is intended to facilitate uncomplicated rehabilitation and/or improvements to a home for which plans, consultants, engineers and/or architects are not required. The repairs costs can be up to $35,000 and there is no minimum requirements. (***Please note there are also 203(k) loan programs available without a maximum repair cost amount and additional improvements capabilities.)

The following is a list of some of the eligible improvements and/or repairs:
  • Repair/Replacement/Upgrades of roofs, gutters, HVAC systems, plumbing, electrical systems and flooring
  • Minor remodeling of kitchens and bathrooms
  • Purchase and installation of appliances
  • Painting - exterior and interior
  • Weatherization including insulation, weather stripping, storm windows and doors
  • Window and door replacement and exterior wall re-siding
  • Lead based paint stabilization and abatement of lead based paint
  • Repair/Replace/Addition of exterior decks, patios and porches
  • Repair to existing swimming pools up to $1,500
  • Repair/Replacement of septic system and wells
  • Accessibility improvements for persons with disabilities
  • Finishing/Remodeling of basements, not including structural repairs

The actual cost of the renovation is based upon the contractors' accepted contracts specifying the scope of work, cost of materials and labor and timeframe. All repairs must be completed by a contractor within 6 months of the closing date. Borrowers are required to have the necessary expertise and experience to perform work.

Please feel free to contact John Payne at 510-799-1400 or 800-259-3424 or John@JPMortgageLoans.com for any additional questions related to the 203(k) Rehabilitation Loan.


My 203(k) FHA Loan Closed - What Happens Now?

Are you purchasing a home in California? Is the house bank-owned, does it need some TLC, or would you just like to paint, carpet and put in some new appliances? The FHA 203(k) Streamline loan is the perfect solution.

FHA Streamline 203(k) mortgage program allows California homebuyers up to an additional $35,000 into their mortgage, to improve or upgrade their home before they move-in. California homebuyers can use this type of loan to pay for property repairs, such as those identified by a home inspector or FHA appraiser. These improvements are not just limited to repairs and can also be cosmetic upgrades to the existing property. Now that you have gone through the whole financing process and you have reached your closing date, what happens next? Rehabilitation construction should begin within 30 days after closing, and all work must be completed within six (6) months from the closing date.

How does your General Contract get paid? After the closing, your loan is typically sold to a servicing company, like Bank of America. This process normally takes 7-10 days, but is currently taking approximately 21 days. This is due to an influx of new loans being purchased from the recent closure of various mortgage lenders. After the loan is sold, 50 percent of the rehabilitation funds are disbursed immediately to the borrower and/or contractor. Included with the initial disbursement is an instruction letter that explains how the final disbursement will be made upon completion of all work. If the cost of the renovation is over $15,000, an inspection by the original appraiser is required.

For borrowers working with a contractor, a W-9 must be provided to set up the contractor, and a two-party check is made out to the borrower and the contractor and sent to the borrower. If multiply contractors are being used, 50 percent of the cost of the repairs for each contractor is disbursed up front. For borrowers performing work themselves, a self-help agreement must be signed before the funds are disbursed. The check is then made out directly to the borrower. A borrower is typically only allowed to perform work themselves if they have experience in that line of work.

Who handles all of the disbursements and other requirements during the rehabilitation process? The servicing company handles all rehabilitation disbursements and project inspections. The amount designated for repairs and improvements, including the contingency reserve, holdback, and PITI, if applicable, are deposited into an interest-bearing repair escrow account, insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

What happens if your repairs have unexpected costs? The contingency reserve is required to cover unexpected repairs. The reserve is usually only required if the repairs exceed $7,500 and is typically 10 percent of the total repair amount. The contingency reserve can only be used on those changes that affect the borrowers health and safety, or is due to an increase in cost for an item of necessity. If a change order results in a decrease in costs, the amount will be added to the contingency reserve. Additional improvements that do not affect the health and safety, or an increase in cost due to a necessity item, must be paid directly by the borrower and not paid out of the contingency reserve fund. The remaining balance in the contingency fund, after all work has been completed, will be used to pay down the principal balance of your loan.

Congratulations! It's time to relax and enjoy yourself.

If you're considering purchasing a home that may need some cosmetic upgrades or repairs, please contact John Payne to get pre-approved, John can be reached at 510-799-1400 or 800-259-3424 or John@JPMortgageLoans.com.

So What's My Home Rate?

"So what's my home loan rate?" This is the question asked to loan originators everyday from our clients and prospects. There is no simple answer and it seems to be getting more complex as the mortgage industry moves toward more risk-based pricing. Risk-based pricing allows adjustments to par pricing for risk factors such as; FICO scores, loan-to-value percentages, property type (SFR, Condo, 2-4 Units), occupancy (Primary, Vacation or Investment) and mortgage type (Interest Only, Adjustable Rate etc).

Let's start off with the basic mechanics of fixed mortgage interest rates. Interest rates are primarily based upon the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities ("MBS" or "Bonds") issued from Fannie Mae ("FNMA"), Freddie Mac ("FHMLC") and Ginne Mae("GNMA"). Think of a Bonds' sales price similar to that of a Stock, it trades up and down during the course of a day. At the time of writing this article, the FNMA coupon we are tracking is selling for $100.81. This is down 22 basis points from the previous day's closing price of $101.03. In simple terms, the consumer would have to pay an additional .22% of their loan amount to have the same rate today that they could have locked in the previous day.

"So...what does all this mean?"

In our example, the client's interest rate could vary from 4.50% - 5.25%. The mortgage interest rate will depend on how the customer would like to set up their mortgage loan with regard to paying either higher or lower upfront fees. Clients locking in a rate should consider how long they intend to have this mortgage loan before considering the fees associated with obtaining any rate. The shorter amount of time you will have the loan, the more it makes sense to pay lower fees and have a higher interest rate. The longer your time horizon for keeping the loan, the more it makes sense to pay higher upfront fees, also known as buying down the interest rate.

A client locking in a rate of 4.50% (5.597% APR) today on a 30-year fixed FHA loan should plan on paying all the customary fees with two discount points. Customary fees would include appraisal, credit report, processing fee, underwriting fee, origination fee, title fees, and recording fees. That same client could lock in 4.75% (5.747% APR) with 1 discount point, 5.00% (5.896% APR) with no discount points and 5.25% (6.044% APR) without any discount points or origination fee. An origination and/or discount point is typically 1% of your loan amount.

With so many rates available on a 30-year fixed mortgage, how can a borrower get the best rate?

First, ask the lender to provide you with a total overall cost analysis. This should illustrate the proposed savings you will have on the loan options available to you both on a monthly and long-term basis. This analysis should also include total payments, total interest paid, total closing costs, points and balance remaining at a given point in time. One of the most important metrics to consider is how long you plan on keeping this loan on the home you purchase or refinance when selecting the right mortgage plan.

Second, we recommend working with a professional who watches, articulates and understands the interest rate markets. If you're a consumer, it's important to understand that interest rates can change daily, even hourly. So, if you are comparing lender rates and fees - this is a moving target on an hourly basis. If you are comparing two quotes from different lenders, you may be comparing apples to oranges. The only way to get a truly accurate comparison is to have the quotes prepared on the exact same day, at the exact same time, with the exact same terms and conditions. You also must know the length of the lock term (i.e. 15 day, 30 day, 45 day, etc.) you are looking to secure, since longer rate locks typically carry slightly higher interest rates.

I provide a daily recommendation to my client's advising them to float or lock their home mortgage interest rate. In this update, I list the current pricing of the FNMA 30-Year Bond and the previous closing price. I identify the key current market updates and the daily economic news releases that are influencing interest rates. I also provide an illustrative picture with our written recommendation, which makes it easily understood.

In conclusion, I feel that having access to valuable information regarding the total overall long-term cost, along with mortgage options that best fit their needs, coupled with market knowledge will allow you to obtain the overall lowest cost mortgage with the best loan rate available.

For more information on rates, fees and your personal mortgage options, contact John Payne at 510-799-1400 or 800-259-3424 or email John@JPMortgageLoans.com

Mortgage Rates Are Low, But Maybe Not For You, Specifically

If you've ever wondered why loan officers can't give you the best "advertised rate", it's not because of a bait-and-switch scheme or something worse. Most likely, you're being quoted higher mortgage rate because of a government mandate called Loan-Level Pricing Adjustments (LLPAs). LLPAs are changes in loan costs based on your personal risk traits. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac first introduced LLPAs in April 2008 and they've been a constant cause of consternation among conforming borrowers since.

The problem is LLPAs aren't exactly Prime Time news and so the first time people hear about them is at the point of application. LLPAs can raise a person's mortgage rate by a full percentage point or more.

To understand what LLPAs are and how they work, let's talk about auto insurance. For all of us, there is some base insurance rate for which we all qualify. It's based on our age, our credit and the ZIP code in which we park the car. From there, however, adjustments are made -- drive a riskier car, pay a higher premium. Have a history of accidents, pay a higher premium.

The same goes for mortgage loans. The more the risk, the higher the rate.

A few of the risk factors that can change a person's mortgage rate includes:
  • Living in a condo with less than 25% equity in the home
  • Having a credit score less than 740
  • Living in a 2-unit, 3-unit or 4-unit home
  • Using a home as an investment property
  • Doing a "cash out refinance with less than 40% equity in the home
  • Having a second mortgage to subordinate

Each of these traits -- historically-- increases the likelihood of your default. Therefore, to hedge, Fannie Mac and Freddie Mac charge flat fees to offset potential future losses.

LLPAs are not discretionary fees; sources of profit or padding. Nor are they junk fees. LLPAs are mandatory costs triggered by specific loan characteristics. There's no flexibility, either. If you trigger the guidelines, you pay the fees.

The Fannie Mae Loan-Level Pricing Adjustment chart is as thorough as it is punitive. At least borrowers get to choose how they pay them:

  1. LLPAs can be paid as a traditional "closing cost", due at closing
  2. LLPAs can be built into the interest rate. In general, interest rates increase 0.250% for each 1 percent of the loan-level pricing adjustment.
It doesn't take much to trigger the risk-based pricing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; a lot of conforming mortgage applicants do it.

If you've triggered the LLPA chart and want to know your options, call or send me an email. Depending on your loan traits, there my be non-government programs that can give the same great rates as Fannie and Freddie, but without the risk fees.

Be sure to ask me about it. I answer all my own emails and would be happy to help you however I can.

John Payne is an active Mortgage Planner. Reach John via email at John@JPMortgageLoans.com or call 510-799-1400 or toll free 800-259-3424.

Mortgage Rate Predictions For The Next 30 Days (Jauary 18, 2010)

Need a mortgage rate prediction? This blog report may point you in the right direction.

I came across a Bankrate.com survey and thought to share it . The bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to California. Email me , John@JPMortgageLoans.com, anytime for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the survey's 30 day prediction for mortgage rates:






36% predict mortgage rates will increase

18% predict mortgage rates will decrease

46% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged





I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged, as long as the Feds are purchasing Mortgage Back Securities (stay turn to see if this continues after March 2010). My advice my not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right (just ask my wife). Ultimately, you may find your time better sent on learning that George Washington invented instant coffee than reading my analysis.


Either way, here's what I think:


"Markets move into wait-and-see mode on the economy and the Fed."


It's been a wild few weeks in the mortgage markets. December was a shoot-out that left every "floater" dead. Since the New Year, though, markets have been easing and rates have been falling. The market is closed today, Martin Luther King's Day. But last week, mortgage rates were at their best levels of the year.


In an it-won't-sound-so-strange-once-you-understand-how-mortgages-rates-work kind of way, rates are down for the same reason they were up -- EXPECTATIONS on the economy.
See, when December started, the jobs report showed net job growth very close to flat. Wall Street got very excited about it. Plus, housing showed more growth and Retail Sales punched in way bigger than projections. At the same time, members of the Fed were stumping for a raise in the Fed Funds Rate and a need to be wary of runaway growth. This, too, got Wall Street excited and as of December 31, 2009, the economy hinted at recovering and expanding at ludicrous speed. Because of this, mortgage rates made there biggest 1-month jump of the year in December. Since then, however, it's been a mixed bag.


January's job report and retail sales report both went negative, and Pending Home Sales failed to impress. Furthermore, there has been a general softness about the economy and Fed members have gone silent on the Fed Fund Rate matters. It's a reversal from December and expectations for 2010 are dialed back a bit. Mortgages rates are falling, but have likely bottomed out for now.


We are witnessing a stasis. The economic forces of expansion and contraction seem balanced. Data is contradictory and difficult to interpret. Wall Street is unsure of what's next. Mortgage rates should stay in a tight range between now and the Super Bowl. There will be days when rates are down, and days when rates are up. The key is picking the right day to make your rate lock. Be patient, but not too patient. Locking mortgages has always been a game of timing. And for that, you may need some help.


If you don't have a mortgage planner you can call for advice, know that you can always call me. Or, send an email, whichever is easier. I handle all of my own emails and I would be happy to help you lock your mortgage rate.



John Payne is an active mortgage planner. Reach John via email at John@JPMortgageLoans.com or call 510-799-1400 or toll free at 800-259-3424.